ABSTRACT:

In sufficient numbers (2 or more, we'll say), Crisis Suits with Twin-Linked weapons outperform Crisis Suits with Multi-Trackers. We consider two cases: One with homogeneous suit squads and Targeting Arrays, and another with mixed suit squads, with Targeting Arrays and Target Locks.

In both cases, the Twin-Linked suits appear to outperform (and, we'll say, be more fun?) than their equivalent standard suits.

Possibly, these conclusions are only valid in the absence of Marker Lights.


THE ARTICLE:

I have a point to make here about Crisis Suits. Before I get to it, let's consider a couple different squad configurations.

Test Team 1:
2 Crisis w/ TL Plasma Rifles and Targetting Array
2 Crisis w/ TL Missile Pods and Targetting Array
[cost: 87% of 4 Fireknives]

For every shot these four suits get, four Fireknives get two shots. But the Fireknives have a 50% conversion rate, compared to 8/9 conversion rate (approx 89%) of these four suits.

Fireknives - 2 shots * 50% = 1 hit
Test Team 1 - 1 shot * 89% = .89 hits

So, suit for suit, Test Team 1 produces only 89% of the hits per suit of Fireknives. But they only cost 87% of the points, meaning in pure shooting power, point for point, Test Team 1 is a percentage point or two better than the Fireknives. Against absolutely any target whatsoever, from Grots to Monoliths.

But, that assumes they're shooting at the same targets. Test Team 1 has the ability to split its fire and pick targets more effectively. So, at worst, only one target will be available, and TT1 will perform just as well as the Fireknives. But, sometimes they'll be able to fire the Missile Pods at a Razorback and the Plasma Rifles at a squad of Marines. For comparison, one squad of Fireknives will shoot at the Razorback (at 24") and the other squad will shoot at the Marines. Note that we're already seeing a disadvantage for the Fireknives, who have to get twelve inches closer with one of the squads to even make this comparison.

Against the Razorback -
Fireknives get 2/3 penetrating hits with the MP and 1/3 with the PR, for a total of 1 penetrating hit.
Test Team 1 gets 1.19 penetrating hits.
Test Team 1 is 19% more effective, model for model, and 36% more effective, point for point, than the Fireknives, in ideal circumstances.

Against the Marines -
Fireknives get 5/9 kills from MPs and 5/6 kills from PRs, for 1.39 kills.
Test Team 1 gets 1.48 kills.
Test Team 1 is 6% more effective, model for model, and 20% more effective, point for point, than the Fireknives, in ideal circumstances.

Fairly extreme examples, but across all targets, Test Team 1 will range from equal to Fireknives to 36% (at least) better than Fireknives, in terms of the firepower it can throw out, point for point. Test Team 1 has the additional flexibility that the Deathrain+ team remains 100% effective 12 inches farther back than the Fireknives.

The downsides are, Fireknives have a little more bang per model, meaning that it is possible to get a little more firepower into the same amount of FOC slots. Also, if an army is particularly vulnerable to one weapon more than another, it can focus its efforts on taking out the more dangerous squad. For example, marines will likely take out the Plasma Rifles first. Against Fireknives, that isn't possible. All of the Fireknives have to be killed to get the Plasma Rifles off the table.

In order to counteract the ability of our opponents to target the more dangerous suits first, we might re-tool the team to look like this:

Test Team 2:
Plasma Rifles w/ TA, Missile Pods w/ TL
Plasma Rifles w/ TL, Missile Pods w/ TA

*Note: Which weapon gets the TA was chosen to make the math easier. The upgrades could be jiggered around to skew the load-out toward one target type or the other.

Same cost, but it drops a little bit of accuracy. This means Fireknives will outshoot this squad, point for point, when shooting at the same targets, by 9%, point for point. However, the ability to split the fire means under ideal conditions, MPs still shoot at Razorbacks and PRs still shoot at Marines. If you trust my math, that means, point for point, Test Team 2 will outshoot Fireknives by 9% against Marines and 24% against Razorbacks.

The down sides to this configuration are that we lose the range advantage over Test Team 1 (instead, breaking even with Fireknives), and in worst-case circumstances, when one weapon or the other is 100% useless, the Fireknives outshoot Test Team 2 by 9%. Though, I would argue this number will generally be lower, as, how many armies have no targets for Plasma Rifles? How many have no targets for Missile Pods?

The clear benefit we get here is, if one weapons is marginal against an entire army (i.e., no suitable MP targets) that suit essentially turns into ablative wounds. Meaning, it's harder for the all-Marine army mentioned above to remove all of our Plasma Rifles, because we'll always remove the Missile Pod suits as casualties first.

SO:

I think each of these configurations has its strengths and weaknesses, but I also think they both out-perform and offer more tactical flexibility than the knee-jerk squads of Fireknives they would replace.

However, my point is not to optimize just these four suits, but more generally to show that specialist suits (suits with one TL weapon) tend to out-perform and be more tactical than standard suits (suits with two weapons and MT). For example, 3 Deathrain+ and 3 Burning Eye+ suits will similarly outperform two squads of 3 Fireknives; one squad with a Deathrain+ and a Burning Eye w/ TL will outperform one squad of 2 Fireknives, Helioses will not perform as well as combinations of Burning Eyes and whatever the TL FB suits are called.

Across the board, suits with Twin-Linked weapons and Targetting Arrays break approximately even, point for point, with the equivalent standard Multi-Tracker suits. On the cheap end, Burst Cannons and Missile Pods, the standard suits are better by 1.25 percent. On the expensive end (tested above), Plasma Rifles and either Fusion Blasters or Missile Pods, the specialist suits are better by 2.06 percent. I didn't do any analysis with flamers, because I didn't feel like that analysis would be meaningful.

So what do you all think? Am I right? Can we go ahead and label Fireknives and Helioses as "subobtimal"?

Before you answer, let me mention a point that might go overlooked: While Twin-Linked suits might be better than the MT versions in a void, the mathematically astute will note that these suits get drastically diminished returns from Marker Lights, in terms of increased BS. A TL/TA suit has an 89% hit rate, which goes up to 97% with a Light, an increase of only 9%, compared to standard suits which get a 33% increase in effectiveness from one Light and a 67% increase from two Lights. So maybe that invalidates my whole argument right there.

Or maybe the proper conclusion is, Multi-Tracker suits are better with Marker Light support, and Twin-Link suits are better without Marker Light support.

Aven

Obsolete or not I still push the use of FK's to new players to get a feel for what type suit they will imploy in the future. While it is not the best suit choice a commander can field depending on his army type, it is probably the best rounded for starting a player out.

I would go with this conclusion. An interesting article and I might apply this to my low-level army lists where I lack sufficient ML support.

I agree with Huru 100%. I would also say that at the 'Ard Boyz point level, they are still the most competitive suit (at least for elite slots). They are great vs EVERY army and only marginally worse in a few situations than the mono-use TL models. When you don't know who you're playing in a competitive environ, I will always go for Fire Knife suits because of this.

It should also be mentioned that Helios are still the best suits for HQ slots because of the sheer number of high str AP 2 hits they can produce per suit. A unit of 4x BS 4 Helios puts 8 FNP marine killing shots on a single unit in 12''. 4x BS 4 Burning Eyes only put 7, and none of those are Str 8 (for those pesky monstrous creatures and multi-woound models).

At higher points levels, where the competition for FOC slots is fierce, Helios rule the HQ and Fireknives rule the Elite. However, at lower point levels or when tailoring your army for a known opponent, I could see these twin linked suits coming into their own.

Aven I will start out by saying that this is a great article.

I disagree with you only on the fact that I like having the right suit at the right place at the right time. I understand where your coming from with your point, but let me put out my view. Starting out in a game you do have the ability to optimize those weapons focusing on the models and units you want. What the fireknife has given me is the ability not to have to rely on a specific unit to be at any given point. I say this especially for termy heavy armies. With 3 teams of fireknives jumping around I can counter anything at any angle. This really starts to come into play near the second half of the game. Being flanked or drop podded without adequate help is terrible.

Any ways I think it comes down to play style and preference.

A couple points:

1) I agree that this doesn't apply to HQ units. Anything with a BS greater than 3 is going to suffer from diminishing returns, both in increasing BS and especially in Twin-Linking. The weird thing about Twin-Linking is it works best on low-BS models (just think about those drones). That's why Twin-Linking is so good on the Crisis suits - because the elites of the army with the best guns in the whole game is so ironically low. I'm pretty sure for commanders, especially O's, Twin-Linking goes to crap and Multi-Trackers are the way to go.

2) It's just a little funny to me that people are worried about having their Crisis Suits outmaneuvered. I think they have a huge maneuverability advantage over 90% of everything, with the exception of maybe fast skimmers, and Dark Eldar super-fast skimmers. For the most part, I think you should be able to bring your Crisis Suits to bear on whatever you want. Unless they cheat and bring melee units.

Aven

outmaneuvered no, overrun yes

While this is true, you are also ignoring that fact (or at least failed to mention it) that the decreased dependency on markerlight hits to increase accuracy means more markerlights for other purposes, such as removing cover saves; something which can't be done as easily with the more traditional multi-tracker based configurations.

One of the issues I have with this set-up is that you are basically "normalizing" your expected output (in other words, you are more likely to attain an average result then one skewed towards the extremes) which unfortunately comes at the cost of a lower maximum output. This may or may not be a huge issue with the configuration however.

Still, this is an excellent article and I applaud you for your time and effort you put into it. I will be definitely trying this out in some games against my brother's Blood Angels this weekend.

@Aven: I always go to battle with all my elite being twin linked and TA equipped. It has served me well and is better than most load outs.

I agree totally with your statement, including the part that this doesn't apply to HQ units. I usually use my HQ as the flexible help in situations guy. So whenever i have the chance to equip a suit with TA and MT i do so, and i always bring a Fireknife commander to a battle.

So your statement agrees with my elites. But i still cherish having a Fireknife commander and bodyguard. Flexibility at a small scale is needed sometimes, just in case.

So lets just say: Fancy loadouts are for Big Boys!!

Well...it's sort of our Army's bag to be able to have multiple weapons firing off our Elites (in the same shooting turn) it sort of feels like you are cheating yourself out of a way to be firing at least 2 weapons.

To each his own, I guess. For the complete new person, fireknife is by far the most forgiving setup...for those with a little more experience, helios really shines, as long as you can keep them from being assaulted. I kind of blend the two, then play it in close, like a helios team. My own setup, which is not for everyone, is one 'El with MP/PR/FB/HWMT, one helios, and one fireknife. With two 'Els, I can field two such teams, and they're more versatile at the team level than even a fireknife is at the individual suit level, while costing a little more than a standard helios or fireknife team, and at the same time, being complex allows me to play wound allocation games.

If I'm in a situation where fireknife or helios is the ideal loadout, I can fire a weapons load that's 5/6 identical to either setup, with either one missile pod or one fusion blaster being the "odd weapon out". If for some strange reason (medium AV at close range), I'm in a situation where I'm wanting a FB/MP setup, I get the equivalent of two such suits, along with a pair of plasma rifles that are of limited value in that situation. Anyway, it's more expensive, and it's only 5/6 effective in either the fireknife or helios role, but it's 5/6 effective in both roles, whereas those two setups are only 1/2 effective (by effective, I mean having the two best weapons for the target at hand, not just weapons with a chance to work) in each other's roles...and it's 2/3 effective in the FB/MP role, versus 1/2 effectiveness for either helios or fireknife in the FB/MP role. Being complex just adds icing to the cake...

marnepup,

I really like that setup, actually. In the situation you mentioned (wanting to shoot FB and MP at medium armor at close range), anything you want to shoot MPs at is at least possible for PRs to hurt, and the FB only works in rapid fire range anyway, so even that doesn't sound so bad.

Being HQ squads, they're tricky to beat with Elite squads. If there were enough slots, I'd want to test your load-out against a pair each of PR, MP, and FB specialists. But I'm not sure if I'd want to field 3 commanders even if I could.

Aven

The particular suit I begin to field after retiring out my Fireknives was the Helios. This was short term use due to a change in play area where I went from allot of marine players to allot of xeno players (Mainly ork and dark eldar). This play style lead me to field Deathrains. After a bit of play testing and jumping back and forth between both game groups I altered my Deathrains into Deathwaves (Twin-linked Missile pod and a flamer). I like this combination because it gives me a good mix of range and accuracy. I use the flamers in quite an unconventional way by using my devilfishies as bait and a squad directly behind it I present my devilfish to be assaulted and use its flettchettes to weaken the squad. On the following turn I jump my suits out from behind the devilfish and use the flamers to soften the assaulting squad, I then jump into assault to finish off said unit because I know I cant JsJ far enough away to avoid their assault. I do this to deny them a charge bonus and gain it for myself.

Hmm... Ugh, been too long since statistics. I think you're correct when evaluating Expected Results... Yeah, that's what you're doing. It's good. If you'd said the probability of getting a hit with two fireknives was 1, that'd be wrong. But you didn't, so all's good.

Very convincing article. I also agree with ruhaha2 that the fireknives win in flexibility; being able to be anywhere on the board and engage anything. Look at it this way, I think...

Burning Eye+ == Defensive Linemen
Fireknives == Linebackers
Deathrain+ == Safeties. (that looks like it's spelled wrong, but the other option is Safetys, so no.)

I'd argue that a mix of each is best... And we just so happen to have an HQ slot to use on Linebackers, so we get the benefit of more accurate MT suits, and the flexibility of the Fireknife configuration.

For a quick example, HQ of Fireknives, 1 Burning Eye+ and 1 Deathrain+ squad, and your third elite can go to a specialist unit, such as Heatwave crisis, or Stealth Marker Team.

@Cr'shu
-That is similar to what I do when I go about on army design, but instead of doing it for one particular unit in several sets I do it for the army as a whole, not just the elite slot.

Finished a game against a Grey Knight army using Crowe to spam Purifier Troops. Came down to the wire, but I used a Burning Eye+ team and deep striked them in behind a 6-man Purifier unit. Wiped them out that same turn, 3+ twin-linked is quite accurate, and preventing armor saves just wrecked them. So color me impressed with the twin-linked team.

(Also on board: Deathrain singleton HQ, Fireknife HQ+Bodyguard, Twinned Flamers mixed unit, two with missile pods; they were Complex. Didn't Deep Strike the Fireknives because they had missile pods, and so were useful on board turn 1.)

Burning Eyes+ are indeed very useful.

If you think about it, 3 crisis Burning-eyes+ can take down a 10 man space marine squad using JSJ. If they get 2 turns of shooting at 24'' and 1 turn of shooting at 12'' then they are surely dead. If not then you can actually charge with the suits and finish them off.

But enemies will figure this out soon enough and they will attempt one of three things.

1. Shooting down the Crisis suits before they get there, which is usually hopeless due to use of cover and inferior fire power.

2. Chase you down with fast units, mainly jump pack units which usually can get the job done even if they only charge you with half their squad.

3. Ignore the crisis suits outright and charge ''weaker'' units like fire warriors and Broadsides which can't run away.

My opponents rarely try to take option 1. so they usually use a combination of option 2 and 3. In this case I usually keep my crisis suits densely packed so that I can eliminate units before they get to me. A Fire-knife Shas'el and bodyguard, plus a squad of Burning eyes+ is usually capable of dealing with any squad and I tend to use these in combination. Closely packed at first to make sure that they both get shots at range, and when the enemy gets closer I split them up so I don't get multiple charged!
Since my enemy will also use option 3 then I just use all my slower units as bait to lure the enemy in.

In the end, the battle for me is not weather the baiting will work, but the fact that the enemy really has no other choice but to take the bait.

So yeah...Burning-eyes+, useful, deadly and dependable.

If I've missed something then tell me, because that might be what my enemy will be plotting in our next match.

I think the one problem with the calculations on this, and indeed on many tau calculations, is it doesn't take into account markerlights. We pay 1750 pt games in general and usually I play a shas'el with bodyguard (all Fireknife), 3 fireknives and 3 deathrain w/flamers). I only own 9 suits at the moment but plan on changing to 1 shas'el and 9 suits (6 FK and 3 DR). I changed to a helios HQ for a while but found the FB was not getting used often enough, especially as it was a waste of the increased BS. I find the Missile Pods do much better and give that extra first turn punch that you need to down all the transports.

Usually my 3 elite FK suits are boosted by markerlight hits to up my BS to 4 or 5 (depending on cover) and once you get to BS 5 the twin-linking really suffers. I'd much rather have 12 shots at BS 5 (rapid fire plasma and Missile pods) than 6 shots (either PR or MP) twin linked.

I think it also suffers from casualties a bit more. Lose one FK team and you still have another. I know in my local club if I started splitting into plasma squad and missile squad the plasma would be knocked off first to prevent me negating marine/terminator saves.

I know you can argue that the FK suffers a little from spreading its weapons load in terms of targets and range but they are just so handy, especially as i tend to build all-comers lists rather than tailoring to play an opponent.

I will, probably, have a game or two trying out this way. But I'll probably end up going back to the trusted FK.

I just found this thread because I've been contemplating similar issues in my loadouts but I don't think your maths is right. Please correct me if I'm wrong but isn't test team 1 actually 95% the points cost of four fireknives?
Doesn't this compromise the rest of your findings?

I may have just missed something or misunderstood though...